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[See the earlier headline Payroll discussions and later FOMC comments.] Under current policy and based on this reports assumptions, it is projected to reach 701 percent by 2096. 1461. Broadly, the aggregate Monetary Base had been in decline since hitting a peak in January 2021, but it has turned higher in the last several months. Adjusted for seasonal factors, the monthly decline was 3.8% (-3.8%), with the year-to-year drop at 3.6% (-3.6%). In the Latest Four Months, Pandemic-Driven Unemployment Has Leveled Off Around 12%, Worst Since Before World War II, Other than for the Pandemic Year-to-year Core PPI Inflation (net of Food and Energy) eased from 5.1% to 4.3%. The NBER called an end to the 2020 Recession on July 19th, again, just the first leg of the Depression. All previous Commentaries are available in, or accessible from, the upper left-hand column of this www.shadowstats.com Home Page. ALTERNATE DATA TAB [See the Menu Bar above] provides the latest headline numbers and exclusive ShadowStats Alternate Estimates and related Graphs of CPI Inflation [April 13], GDP [April 27], Unemployment [April 7], Money Supply [April 25] and the ShadowStats Financial-Weighted U.S. Dollar [January 10]. (11) April 14th (CassInfo.com) The March 2023 Cass Freight Index release noted that The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index fell 1.0% m/m in March as freight markets continue to work through an extended soft patch. That monthly decline of 1.0% (-1.0%) was not seasonally adjusted, with a related unadjusted year-to-year drop of 4.0% (-4.0%). March 2023 New Residential Construction continued in statistically significant annual year-to-year collapse for both Building Permits and Housing Starts. Accordingly, ongoing massive Fiscal and Monetary Stimuli will be needed, and likely will expand into 2024/2025, irrespective of the FOMCs pronounced tightening. As demonstrated in recent decades, FOMC stimulus likely will remain in play, as targeted by the FOMC, primarily, in order to prevent a collapse in the Banking System, or to magnify liquidity in the Banking System, which owns and controls the Federal Reserve, not to stimulate the Broad Economy, per se. Jacinta Price named shadow minister for Indigenous Australians . Primers & Reports. In the charts to the right we show two SGS-Alternate CPI estimates: One based on the pre-1990 official methodology for computing the CPI-U, and the other based on the methodology which was employed prior to 1980. -- Headline March 2023 U.3 and U.6 Unemployment of 3.50% and 6.68% notched lower from respective three- and six-month highs of 3.57% and 6.80% in February, but held above January 2023 levels. That said, in Business Cycle definitions, an economic downturn traditionally has been known as a Depression, which has two components the Recession and the Recovery. After the economic terror of the Great Depression, economic downturns took on the less-frightening Recession nomenclature. I also have, This material is provided under the ShadowStats.com. Accordingly, the FOMCs near-term financial-market policy conundrum of creating Money Supply to support the financial system, while trying to kill inflation at the same time, has no happy resolution. The FOMC announced in its March 22nd Press Release: Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. What are Shadow's specs? Revised year-to-year growth slowed to 0.88%, from 0.91% and an initial estimate of 0.96%, versus 1.94% in 3q2022. 2023 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams. Real year-to-year growth patterns were kinder to the fourth-quarter GDP, with year-to-year growth increasing from 0.88% to 1.57%, and with the gain against Pre-Pandemic Peak Activity increasing from 5.03% in 4q2022 to 5.31% in 1q2023. Where current inflationary pressures appear to be tied to excessive Monetary stimulus out of the Fed, not due to an overheating economy, still higher interest rates, now, would do little to contain inflation, while at the same time higher interest rates would continue to impair economic activity. John Williams, founder of Shadow Government Statistics, . That began a lengthy process of exploring the history and nature of economic reporting and in interviewing key people involved in the process from the early days of government reporting through the present. The recent string of extreme FOMC rate hikes certainly has not. Your Shadow subscription. Noted the by the U of M, Despite the increasingly negative news on business conditions heard by consumers, their short and long-run economic outlook improved modestly balanced by worsening assessments of personal finances due to higher expenses, reflecting the ongoing pain stemming from continued high prices. [Go to http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu for the full details.]. The dotted lines are the overlayed series created from the official CPI statistics. -- The University of Michigans full-month release of the April 2023 Consumer Sentiment reading held little changed at 63.5, against its initial estimate of 63.5, up from 62.0 in March 2023, holding shy by 37.1% (-37.1%)[previously by 38.6% (-38.6%) in March] of ever recovering its February 2020 pre-Pandemic peak level of 101.0. Including Long-Term Discouraged Workers, the broader, March 2023 ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Rate of 24.6% held at a seven-month high. Read more about the World Economics Informal Economy database. Gasoline prices having been in an upswing since January 2023, gaining 11.7% since December 2022, as of the just-released April 2023 monthly average [EIA]. The 2020 Pandemic-Driven Recession was timed by the defining National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), from Peak-to-Trough, as from February 2020 to April 2020 [2 months, the shortest on record] and from Fourth-Quarter 2019 to Second-Quarter 2020 [2 quarters]. Ongoing rate hikes at each of the last several FOMC Meetings to reduce inflation, remain counterproductive in the context of an already deepening Economic Recession and resurgent gasoline prices. It remains ShadowStats contention that the surging headline inflation is due to FOMC-triggered massive growth in the Money Supply and Monetary Liquidity, as reflected in the highly liquid Basic M1 (Currency plus Time Deposits / Checking Accounts), not due to an Overheating Economy. In summary, Shadow Stats constructed their alternative measure by taking a 5.1% difference between CPIU and CPIURS (the BLS's retroactive adjustment) and misinterpreted it as an ANNUAL difference when it was in fact a CUMULATIVE difference. (12) April 13th (Bureau of Labor Statistics). April 2023 Annual Benchmark Revisions lowered historical levels and growth estimates for inflation-adjusted Real Retail Sales back to January 2021, likely foreshadowing some downside revisions to headline GDP in its later 2023 benchmarking. The headline March 2023 Monetary Base, jumped by 4.7% month-to-month to a seven-month high, as the FOMC fed emergency funding into Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks, at a time of systemic liquidity concerns. Despite a small monthly narrowing in the headline March 2023 Unemployment Rate, details remained consistent with an unfolding recession. Those numbers are adjusted for inflation, using the Construction Producer Price Index. (15) April 5th (Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis - BEA) - Following a record 2022 Real Annual Merchandise Trade Deficit, the January and February 2023 Deficits deepened successively to their worst readings since October 2022, but narrower than in First-Half 2022. The linear transformation of CPI tracks the $89 shadowstats series almost perfectly. Year-to-year Core PPI Inflation (net of Food and Energy) eased from 5.1% to 4.3%. [Posted May 1st, 1:00 a.m. That revised February inflation of 16.1% was much higher than the year-to-year nominal growth of 5.3% in parallel February Construction Spending, resulting in an unrevised, inflation adjusted, real year-to-year decline of 9.5% (-9.5%) in February 2023 [See extended comments in later Note (16)]. Full-Year 2020 Existing- and New-Home Sales Were Highest Since 2006 During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies. Unemployment. The CPI on the Alternate Data Series tab here reflects the CPI as if it were calculated using the methodologies in place in 1980. That said, in practice, such should be a major economic consideration for the FOMC and the Administration, going forward, as they hike Interest Rates, reduce their Balance Sheet and look to break the Budget Deficit Federal Debt Ceiling. In contrast, the usually less meaningfully sampled Housing Starts, tend to be more volatile in revision. Those details are posted and graphed on the Alternate Data Tab. FOR SUBSCRIBERS Beyond the pending monthly Commentary, graphs covering the latest numbers and most other economic, inflation and monetary detail, are available to you by e-mail, as part of your existing, regular subscription. For the Second Straight Month, Payrolls Declined Year-to-Year by 6.0% (-6.0%) Others: Consumer Liquidity, Depression, Money Supply. -- In contrast, the ShadowStats Corrected Alternate-GDP estimate, adjusted for the continual understatement of headline GDP Inflation, and the corresponding continual overstatement of growth in the Real GDP, showed a corrected 1q2023 real annualized quarterly contraction of 0.98% (-0.98%), against a 0.50% 4q2022 gain, with an annual contraction of 0.49% (-0.49%) in 1q2023, against an annual drop of 1.16% (-1.16%) in 4q2022. ET). That said, again, Fiscal Years 2021 and 2022 (FY 2021, FY 2022, FY 2023) circumstances and prospects have continued to deteriorate meaningfully, at an accelerating pace, from conditions at the end of FY 2020 (see the next paragraph), exploding anew into the still unfolding, disastrous FY 2023. While the headline number usually is the seasonally-adjusted month-to-month change, the formal CPI is reported on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis, with annual inflation measured in terms . Explored in the pending Commentary, the U.S. economy is and has been much weaker than advertised, not overheating, and the soaring inflation, which is much worse than headlined, again, primarily is being driven by the Feds excessive Money and Liquidity creation, not by an overheating economy, in a policy conundrum previously noted here by ShadowStats. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. For the most-liquid Basic M1 Money Supply measure in March 2023, dollar levels and growth levels moved higher against the Pre-Pandemic Trough, still suggestive of massive mounting, not easing inflation pressures. Those details are posted and graphed on the Alternate Data Tab. -- Despite recent GDP Benchmark Revisions and current gimmicked reporting, key Economic Series show not only that the Pandemic-driven Economic Collapse was worse than headlined, but also that the still-unfolding Recovery has been much weaker than indicated. In parallel, the year-to-year pace of March 2023 ShadowStats Alternate CPI inflation eased to 12.9% in March 2023, from 14.1%, from in February 2023. The response to those writings (the Primer Series available at the top-center of this page) was so strong that we started ShadowStats.com (Shadow Government Statistics) in 2004. Risk of Hyperinflationary Economic Collapse Has Accelerated With Democrats Taking Control of Both the White House and Congress The growth of the shadow economy can set off a destructive cycle. Sales declined 22% from one year ago. The renewed monthly decline followed a 13.8% monthly jump in March, the first monthly gain since January 2022. Separately, all as measured against Pre-Pandemic Troughs, traditional M2, which has not been redefined, was up by 34.7% in March 2023, versus readings 36.4% in February 2023 and 37.3% in January, while the broadest ShadowStats Ongoing-M3 Estimate notched lower in March to 30.2%, from 31.9% in both February and January 2023. (7) April 20th (National Association of Realtors NAR). Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen did not describe in her Opening Message for 2021, as she had in 2020, and as her recent predecessors had done, that the current Fiscal Path was Unsustainable. Yet that concept still appeared early in the Opening Summary: The debt-to-GDP ratio was about 100 percent at the end of FY 2021 [around 122% in November 2022 WJW]. The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. 1461. Alternate Gross Domestic Product Chart. Apparently, neither has the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as detailed in an article by BLS economists John Greenlees and . CPI-adjusted, Real Retail Sales declined by 1.04% (-1.04%) month-to-month in March 2023, down by 1.95% (-1.95%) year-to-year, with First-Quarter 2023 Real Retail Sales declining 0.30% (-0.30%) year-to-year, down for the fourth time in the last five quarters, otherwise gyrating with extreme volatility in recent monthly automobile sales. March 2023 activity versus the February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Trough for the newly redefined (post-May 2020) headline M1 (now including Savings Deposits, at about 92% of M2) was up by a headline 375.8%, albeit on a nonsensical, not comparable and inconsistent basis, down from 385.4% in February. If you are not a Subscriber, and wish to be, see the next paragraph. In context of the ever evolving financial, inflation and economic circumstances, ShadowStats should post Commentary No. Announced FOMC policies are little more than jawboning and targeted financial-market hype, until put into actual full effect. Where January 2021 Year-to-Year Manufacturing Contracted by 1.0% (-1.0%), It Also Contracted by 1.8% (-1.8%) from January 2019, Two Years Ago Please note that the ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Data and Graphs have been updated for March 2023 on the ALTERNATE DATA TAB (see the above links ribbon). U.S. Government 2021 Financial Statements showed the deepening deficit net worth of the U.S. Governments financial condition hit a record shortfall, or negative net worth, of $123.5 trillion in Fiscal Year 2021 (year-ended September 30), widening from a $113.8 trillion negative net worth in 2020. 1460b and will be detailed in pending No. When the Pandemic hit the U.S. economy and financial system hard in March and April 2020, the Federal Reserve responded with massive expansion of the Money Supply (eventually the equivalent of 23-years-worth of regular Basic M1 stimulus -- Systemic Liquidity). March 2023 Real New Orders for Durable Goods -- For fourteen consecutive quarters, through First-Quarter 2023, Real New Orders for Durable Goods (deflated by the Durable Goods PPI, and net of the volatile Commercial Aircraft orders), never has recovered its Third-Quarter 2019 Pre-Pandemic Peak activity. Shy of a near-term happy resolution to the Russia-Ukraine War, the circumstance only has exacerbated the ShadowStats Hyperinflation pre-Russia-Ukraine War outlook of the last year or so, where: Despite recent relative weakness in gold prices and related Central Bank or other market machinations, the ShadowStats broad outlook in the weeks and months ahead has remained for: (1) A continuing and renewed deepening (potentially hyperinflationary) U.S. economic collapse, reflected in (2) Continued flight to safety in precious metals, with accelerating upside pressures on gold and silver prices, (3) Mounting renewed selling pressure on the U.S. dollar, against the Swiss Franc and other traditionally stronger currencies, and (4) Despite recent extreme Stock Market volatility and current near-record high levels in the popular U.S. stock-market indices, high risk of major instabilities and heavy stock-market selling continues, complicated by ongoing direct, supportive market interventions arranged by U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen, as head of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets (a.k.a. Noted frequently here and discussed subsequent to earlier FOMC Meetings (March 22nd was the last), little has changed: The Federal Reserves Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) hiked the targeted Federal Funds Rate March 22nd by the expected 0.25%, to a 15-year high level of 5.00%, hoping still to induce an imminent Economic Recession, which otherwise already had been in play and deepening for some time, due to earlier rate hikes. He believes the economy has collapsed, based upon his calculations on economic. (3) April 26th (Census Bureau). In general terms, methodological shifts in government reporting have depressed reported inflation, moving the concept of the CPI away from being a measure of the cost of living needed to maintain a constant standard of living. The initial headline annualized quarterly estimate of inflation-adjusted First-Quarter 2023 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed doubly negative patterns of activity. Given a moribund, underlying U.S. Economy, raising rates further [as had been heavily jawboned and promised by the Fed Chairman, among other FOMC members, until the most-recent March 2023 FOMC] likely will only exacerbate deteriorating economic conditions, without providing any meaningful inflation relief. Separately, the inflation issue is complicated by independently rising gasoline prices, not by any overheating economy! The original Money Supply measure, Basic M-1 is defined as Currency plus Demand Deposits (checking accounts). A Review-Preview of 2020 into 2024, it will incorporate all the latest economic details. SHADOWSTATS DAILY UPDATE - May 1st to May 3rd A major Subscriber-Only e-mail update is pending for later today. Shadowstats.comis a website that analyzes and offers alternatives to government economic statistics for the United States. That 2021 shortfall reflected an operating deficit Net Position or operating negative net worth of $29.9 trillion in 2021, widening from a Net Position deficit of $26.8 trillion in 2020, plus deepening unfunded Social Security and Medicare net liabilities (Closed Group) of $93.6 trillion in 2021, versus $87.0 trillion in 2020. Please note: Our Data Download is currently only providing the 1980-Based numbers, but 1990-Based numbers will be introduced shortly. Services include customized forecasts and analyses of the general economy, presentations and consultations in-house for clients. Evolving Circumstances Remain Extremely Strong for Gold and Silver, and Weak for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Central Bank or Other Systemic Machinations to the Contrary, Intractable and Deteriorating Conditions Still Signal No Imminent Economic Recovery, Irrespective of Some Bounces in March Activity Against Weather-Driven February Collapses While the headline number usually is the seasonally-adjusted month-to-month change, the formal CPI is reported on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis, with annual inflation measured in terms of year-to-year percent change in the price index. Search Text. ShadowStats is Williams' attempt to provide an alternative to the official consumer price index (CPI), which he views as a flawed measure of what members of the general public have in mind when. -- Noted regularly here, New Home Sales (likely the least-reliable, least-meaningful, least-significant and most heavily revised headline series published by the Census Bureau) continued to sink year-to-year.

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